Good Morning
What we’re reading this week:
This 2016 paper from MIT about the death of the clean tech sector
Where New York’s Sick Sea Turtles Go for Rehab and Squid Snacks (NYT)
The Greendicator
Top Deals of the Week
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GeoPura, a 3.5-year-old British company that aims to replace traditional diesel generators with its "hydrogen power unit" technology, has raised £36 million in funding from GM Ventures and others (G)
Aeroseal, a climate tech startup providing software-enabled energy solutions, raised a $30M Series B led by OGCI Climate Investments (FN)
Electra Vehicles, an eight-year-old, Boston-based battery management software company, has raised $21 million in new funding led by United Ventures (EV)
EV powertrain startup Zevx raised a $20M+ round led by Reynolds Capital (FN)
Aquafortus, a startup extracting metals / minerals from difficult-to-treat wastewater, raised a $17M Series A-1 led by DCVC and Novo Holdings (FN)
Gridium, a decarbonization partner for real estate firms, raised $14M in funding led by Navitas Capital (BW)
Paleo, a Belgian food tech startup creating plant-based meat and fish alternatives, raised a $12.8M Series A led by DSM Venturing and Planet A Ventures (FN)
Future Fields, a 3.5-year-old, Edmonton, Alberta-based synthetic biology startup that's using fruit flies for recombinant protein production for cultivated meat and other applications, has raised $11.2 million in seed extension funding from Bee Partners and others (TC)
BioSqueeze, a startup commercializing biomineralization technology designed to eliminate methane emissions from oil and gas wells, raised a $7.4M round led by Valo Ventures (PRN)
Hypercraft, an electric drive systems provider for vehicle manufacturers, raised a $6.5M seed round at a $51.5M valuation led by RevRoad Capital (FN)
French “ESG strategy software for food companies” startup Carbon Maps raised a $4.27M pre-seed round led by Breega and Samaipata (FN)
Green Theory
How many plant-based burgers does it take to save a cow?
Imagine a vegan food truck that sells hundreds of plant-based burgers over the course of a day. Did they save a cow? As protein demand pushes higher, and alternative proteins arrive to offset animal agriculture, how can we know these novel foods really make a difference?
In theory, an Impossible or Beyond burger, styled after its meat counterpart, could help someone chase the burger they want, without the beef’s land, antibiotic, water, and food use. If eating that alternative burger replaced what would have been a beef burger, there’s little doubt it spares society and oneself certain costs, in part by sending a message to the supply chain.
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With a small body of evidence, however, it’s hard to know what would have happened without the presence of the alternative meat at scale—leaving room for doubt, and counterarguments. Leading alternative meats claim they replace their conventional animal counterparts. Let’s see why some could be skeptical, and what the data show us to say today.
More Soy Burgers, More Problems?
To start, if it’s only strict vegans buying Impossible burgers, it’s unclear how this consumption immediately leads to the sparing of any factory-slaughtered animals. Committed vegans won’t buy a beef burger anyway, so adding these new alternative meats, in this case, wouldn’t replace animal proteins (except in driving down cost and increasing the adoption and availability of non-animal alternatives, to eventually displace others’ meat eating). Beyond and Impossible go out of their way to explicitly market toward meat eaters, but it doesn’t prevent vegans and vegetarians from partaking, too. The sales attributed to vegans and vegetarians doesn’t fit as neatly into the meat offsetting story.
Believe it or not, some voices alleging to be in the alternatives industry go so far as to argue that plant-based alternatives could increase the sales of meat, contrary to their missions. Founder of the Plant Based Foods Association, and Forbes contributor, Michelle Simon posited that restaurants serving Impossible and Beyond products mostly do so to avoid one vegan or vegetarian eater in a party rejecting a restaurant outright. Simon rails against the idea of plant-based burgers replacing meat: “In this very typical scenario [of 1 vegan or vegetarian menu item]...an entire group of meat eaters is also now giving the restaurant its business, so more meat is being sold because of the plant-based option.” Perhaps some numbers would clear up the picture of meat displacement.
Meat’s Growth Slowed by Alternatives
In grocery stores, sales data show a tiny offset in animal alternatives’ sales from the introduction of plant-based meats and dairy, according to Kroger, the US grocery giant. Conventional meat may be selling better over the past year, but there’s still less meat demand than there would have been otherwise. And even a tiny offset is impressive, when retail sales for alternatives are often so much smaller than their animal counterparts, today.
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With the home kitchen covered, what about the theory of alternative burgers increasing overall meat consumption? Fortunately, almost half of US restaurants offer at least one plant-based meal. For vegans dining with a group of meat eaters, rejecting one restaurant for lack of any option, the next restaurant is just as likely to have at least one plant-based choice as it is to have none. To be sure, from the perspective of one restaurant, offering veggie burgers could help sell more meat, by bringing in more customers, overall. Still, as long as vegetarians are stuck looking for any option, and not restricting meat-forward dining groups to exclusively plant-based restaurants, those meat eaters are likely to find their meat at whatever restaurant the group chooses. At the same time, the few meat eaters who change their mind at the last minute, and opt for the newly added plant-based option at a burger joint, offer a clear case of meat replacement.
Beyond Math
Though it may be hard to precisely pinpoint the exact meat-offsetting impact of Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, or the retail alternative foods category at large, the people running businesses, from vegan food trucks to industrial-scale manufacturers, and eating alternative foods, probably don’t care.
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Those trying to free society of the ills of animal agriculture don’t need to save exactly 0.083% of a cow with every Impossible burger to feel they’re opening the door to a new food order. More plainly, regardless of one’s stance on the acceptability of plant-based foods today, new processes are letting us turn fewer, simpler ingredients into more complex textures and flavors, with more control of the nutritional profile. That sounds exciting for food, and adding in the compounding benefits of reducing consumption of animals, it’s easy to see why commitment to this category of alternative foods can persist through a down year in sales for some subcategories.
Evaluating the change at scale can be overwhelming, but every meal or grocery trip offers a more personal path to change. Be it for individual, communal, animal, or planetary health alone, choosing to go animal-free for even one meal performs a service for each of those buckets, as long as you’re getting enough to eat elsewhere. Other plant-forward choices may be slightly more popular, but if meat analogs also earn conscious eaters’ forks, alt meats clearly serve to help shift eating away from conventional animal meat, not toward it.
The Closer
Just learned about this 500 million year old species, rare in every environment it’s found in, and I’m obsessed